Time Series Analysis on Crude Oil Price per Barrel Exported Overseas from January 2008 to December 2017

Saw, Khwee Fong (2019) Time Series Analysis on Crude Oil Price per Barrel Exported Overseas from January 2008 to December 2017. Final Year Project (Bachelor), Tunku Abdul Rahman University College.

Text Saw Khwee Fong_FULL TEXT.pdf Restricted to Registered users only Download (1MB)

Abstract

In this project report, we investigate the Time Series Analysis on Crude Oil Price per Barrel Exported Overseas from Jan 2008 to Dec 2017. The price data were collected from Jan 2008 to Dec 2017 in order to forecast the crude oil price in January 2018. The report consists of five chapters. In Chapter 1, we introduce crude oil and time series analysis. Next, the problem statements, objective and project scope of this project will also be clarified in Chapter 1. In chapter 2, the terminologies and definitions related to time series analysis were presented after studying from Time Series Analysis text books and reading materials from library and online sources. In addition, the literature reviews of others’ project were studied and the results as well as the knowledge gained by studying other researchers’ paper were also written into the report. In Chapter 3, we present time series analysis in detail which includes Components of Time Series Analysis, Time Series Models, and Assumptions in the first section of Chapter 3. In the second section of Chapter 3, methodology used, the Three-stage Process of Box-Jenkins will be explained and steps for each process will be stated clearly. In Chapter 4, the SPSS Expert Modeler generated results are copied and interpreted. Some hypothesis testing are carried out to prove that the generated result fits the model and provide a good and accurate forecasting. In the last Chapter, the Chapter 5, the overall result will be explained in brief as a conclusion as well as future work and limitations of the topic will be included as well.