The Time Series Analysis of the Unemployment Rate in Malaysia: a Heuristic Study of before and after COVID-19

Lee, Shu Ern (2022) The Time Series Analysis of the Unemployment Rate in Malaysia: a Heuristic Study of before and after COVID-19. Final Year Project (Bachelor), Tunku Abdul Rahman University College.

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Abstract

The unemployment rate in Malaysia since 1982-2020 will be studied. The unemployment rate before and after COVID-19 is estimated using time series analysis. The report consists of six chapters. Chapter 1 gives the overview of the project and a general discussion on the unemployment rate in Malaysia. The aims, objective and scope of the study will also be included. Chapter 2 discussed some recent study in unemployment issues and literature review on analyse techniques and forecast methods in predicting the unemployment rate. In Chapter 3, some preliminary results about 4 types of models and some related statistical tests used to forecast the unemployment rate are provided. The data used and the model that are involved in the project are discussed. Furthermore, the process of time series analysis is visualised in flowchart to provide a better understanding on this study. The results the time series analysis on the unemployment rate in Malaysia before and after the pandemic are presented and discussed in Chapter 4. The unemployment data will be fitted based on 4 different time series models and statistical tests will be conducted to obtain well fit model that will be used to forecast the unemployment rate in Malaysia after COVID- 19. In addition, the impact of COVID-19 on the unemployment rate is discussed based on the comparison made before and after the pandemic. The conclusions and future work of the study is included in Chapter 5.