Game Performance Indicator That Distinguishes Between Winning and Losing Teams Participating in the MSSM 2024 U18 Basketball Competition

Tan, Chung Chee (2025) Game Performance Indicator That Distinguishes Between Winning and Losing Teams Participating in the MSSM 2024 U18 Basketball Competition. Final Year Project (Bachelor), Tunku Abdul Rahman University of Management and Technology.

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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to identify the game performance indicator that distinguish between winning and losing team in the Majlis Sukan Sekolah Malaysia (MSSM) 2024 Under-18 (U18) Men’s Basketball tournament. A total of 20 games were analyzed, consisting of group-stage and final-stage matches with final score margins of 20 points or fewer. Games were classified into close game and unbalance game. Game footage was obtained from publicly available sources on YouTube and analyzed using Dartfish video analysis software with a custom-designed tagging panel. Performance indicators included box score statistics, tactical indicators (e.g., points in the paint, fast break points), and advanced metrics such as true shooting percentage, offensive rating, and defensive rating, calculated using established formulas. Statistical analyses included the Mann-Whitney U test, independent t-test, and binary logistic regression. In unbalanced games, winning teams recorded significantly higher values in defensive rebounds, true shooting percentage, offensive rating, three-point shots made, and three-point shooting percentage compared to losing teams (p < .05). In close games, losing teams had significantly more free throw attempts and blocks, while winning teams registered significantly more assists (p < .05). Binary logistic regression identified three-point shooting percentage and defensive rebounds as significant predictors of winning in unbalanced games. These findings suggest that in more decisive wins, shooting efficiency and rebounding dominance are critical factors, while in closer contests, teamwork-related indicators such as assists may play a larger role in determining game outcomes. Keywords: Basketball ; Games statistics ; performance indicator ; performance analysis