Statistical Analysis of Offense Modalities of Miami Heat in 2023 Eastern Conference Playoff

Liew, Jun Xiang (2026) Statistical Analysis of Offense Modalities of Miami Heat in 2023 Eastern Conference Playoff. Final Year Project (Bachelor), Tunku Abdul Rahman University of Management and Technology.

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Abstract

This study examined the offensive modalities of the Miami Heat during the 2023 Eastern Conference Playoff, a rare underdog playoff run that highlighted the need for deeper tactical analysis beyond conventional game-related statistics. The study aimed to quantify the offensive-related categorical variables to examine whether offensive modalities varied across three playoff opponents; and to examine whether selected offensive variables were associated with possession success. A non-experimental observational research design was applied, combining video-based notational analysis with descriptive statistics. Full-match videos of 18 playoff games were analyzed using Dartfish software to tag all Miami Heat offensive possessions, while official game-related statistics were collected from NBA sources. Inferential analysis included chi-square tests of independence for categorical variables and Kruskal-Wallis tests for numerical variables. The findings showed that Miami Heat maintained a stable half-court offensive identity, predominantly relied on set offense (80.6%), with isolation (33.5%), spot-up (18.4%), and pick-and-roll (16.6%) actions, as the most frequent finishing actions throughout the Eastern Conference playoff run. Significant associations between opponent and finishing action ( p<.001), offense type (p=.004), and defensive scheme faced (p<.001) were found, indicating that offensive patterns were adjusted differently according to opponent-specific defensive contexts rather than changing their overall offensive identity. Finishing actions were also significantly associated with shooting condition(p<.001) and possession outcome (p<.001), suggesting that the most frequently used actions were not always the most effective. In addition, significant between-opponent differences were found in field goals made, field goal percentage, and three-point percentage (p < .05). In conclusion, Miami Heat’s offense was characterized by a stable structure with match-up based tactical adaptability, indicating that offensive success in playoff context may depend on the interaction between offensive execution, defensive context, and possession-level effectiveness.